You’ve likely seen headlines saying home prices are cooling. While that’s true on a national level, it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Real estate is local. In one city, prices may still be climbing steadily. In another, values may have leveled off or even slipped slightly. That difference isn’t random. It’s being driven by one key factor.
Inventory Is Setting the Pace
The number of homes available for sale has a direct impact on pricing.
When inventory increases, buyers have more homes to choose from. That means fewer bidding wars, more negotiating power, and less pressure for prices to rise.
On the other hand, when there aren’t enough homes available, buyers compete for limited listings, often pushing prices higher.
This pattern is playing out across the country today.
Markets where inventory has returned to, or exceeded, pre-pandemic levels are generally seeing slower price appreciation or small price adjustments. Areas where inventory remains well below 2019 levels continue to experience steady price growth.
As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub puts it:
“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.
In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”
The Maps Tell the Story
Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most states, available homes are still below pre-pandemic levels. That’s one of the biggest reasons prices continue to rise across much of the country, even if the pace has slowed (see the orange in the map below):
Now compare that with states where inventory has grown beyond 2019 levels. According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. now have more homes on the market than they did before the pandemic. The second map below uses the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) home price data. Notice how many of the states with higher inventory are also the ones experiencing slower price growth or modest price declines.
The connection is clear. Markets with more available homes generally see less upward pressure on prices, while areas with limited inventory continue to experience stronger appreciation.
The national average of about 1.7% annual home price growth combines two very different stories: a handful of markets with slight price declines and the majority of markets where prices are still moving higher.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, your local market matters far more than national headlines.
In areas where inventory has grown, you may find more homes to choose from, less competition, and sellers who are more open to negotiations.
Here in Texas, inventory has improved in many communities, giving buyers opportunities that were difficult to find just a couple of years ago. Depending on the neighborhood, this could mean more leverage when making an offer.
For sellers, realistic pricing has become increasingly important.
Homes that are priced appropriately from the beginning tend to attract more interest and stronger offers. Overpricing in a market with growing inventory can lead to longer days on market and price reductions later.
Even in areas where inventory remains limited, pricing strategically is still one of the best ways to generate serious buyer interest.
A local real estate professional can help you understand what’s happening specifically in your neighborhood instead of relying on national averages.
Bottom Line
National housing reports only tell part of the story.
The real driver behind today’s home prices is local inventory, and every market is behaving a little differently.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in North Texas, let’s look at what’s happening in your area and create a strategy based on today’s market, not yesterday’s headlines.
