Why Online Home Value Estimates Get It Wrong

by | Jul 1, 2025 | 0 comments

We’ve all done it—typed our address into Zillow, Redfin, or Realtor.com to check our home’s estimated value.

It’s fast, easy, and oddly satisfying to see that number pop up on the screen. Maybe it even went up recently and gave you a little confidence boost. Or maybe it went down, and you’re left scratching your head.

But here’s what those websites rarely tell you upfront: that number is just a starting point.

These online home value tools (also known as AVMs—Automated Valuation Models) use algorithms to guess your home’s worth. And while they might work okay in areas with lots of cookie-cutter homes and frequent sales, they often fall short in communities like McKinney, Allen, and Fairview—where every home has its own personality and story.


1. They’re Based on Incomplete or Outdated Information

Most online platforms pull data from public records, tax rolls, and recent sales. What they don’t see—or account for—can seriously skew the results.

They don’t know that:

  • You remodeled your kitchen with quartz countertops and custom cabinetry

  • You just replaced the roof and upgraded your windows

  • Your home backs to a peaceful greenbelt or sits on a quiet cul-de-sac

  • You added a screened-in porch or new landscaping

Those details make a huge difference in value—but they’re invisible to a computer.

Luxury white kitchen with granite island, stainless steel appliances, and pendant lighting

Upgrades like this remodeled kitchen can significantly impact your home’s true market value.


2. They Assume Every Home in the Neighborhood Is Identical

Automated models work better in neighborhoods where homes are nearly the same size, age, and layout. But here in McKinney and surrounding areas, you’ve got custom builds next to tract homes, original owners next to new renovations, and wildly different lot sizes—even on the same street.

An AVM might compare your home to the house next door that hasn’t been updated in 20 years—or to one that backs to a busy road. That’s not a fair comparison, and it’s not how local buyers think.

When I price a home, I don’t just look at sales data. I look at context.

Aerial view of suburban neighborhood with single-family homes and curved streets

Online estimates assume all neighborhood homes are the same—but lot size, upgrades, and location can make a big difference in value.


3. They Don’t Reflect What’s Happening in the Market Right Now

Markets are dynamic. Inventory levels shift. Mortgage rates rise and fall. Buyer preferences evolve.

But AVMs are built on historical data. They’re always a few steps behind what’s actually happening in real time.

That lag can lead to big pricing mistakes, like:

  • Overpricing based on last year’s hot market—scaring away today’s cautious buyers

  • Underpricing in a tight inventory market—leaving money on the table

Either way, you lose.

Magnifying glass over housing market charts with wooden house models and financial data

Automated estimates rely on outdated data. Real-time pricing requires local insight and current market conditions.


4. They Can’t Customize a Pricing Strategy

Pricing isn’t just about picking a number. It’s about positioning your home the right way to appeal to the right buyers at the right time.

When I help you price your home, I consider:

  • What the current pool of buyers is looking for

  • What competing homes are listed and selling for right now

  • Whether it makes sense to list aggressively or leave room for bidding

  • How staging, timing, and marketing will impact perceived value

That’s not something an algorithm can replicate.

Real estate agent meeting with a couple to discuss home pricing strategy at a laptop

A smart pricing strategy isn’t about picking a number—it’s about understanding timing, demand, and what buyers value most.


5. They Don’t See What I See

I walk through homes every week. I hear what buyers love—and what makes them hesitate. I know what features buyers are paying a premium for right now, and what’s not moving the needle.

That’s not data you can scrape from a website. That’s local expertise.

Real estate agent talking with a family outside a home, highlighting local expertise and buyer insight

I don’t rely on algorithms—I talk to real buyers every week and know what features make them fall in love with a home.


Bottom Line:

Online estimates are fine if you’re just curious. But if you’re actually thinking about selling—or even just weighing your options—you deserve more than a guess.

You deserve a clear, accurate pricing strategy backed by local insight, real market data, and the kind of personal attention you just won’t get from a website.

📩 Want to know what your home is really worth? Request a free home evaluation here.
I’ll give you a straightforward, local market analysis—no pressure, just the facts.

Vesta Schneider
Realtor®
Luxury Homes | Relocation | Investments
Keller Williams Realty McKinney
📞 302-530-7314
📧 vestaschneider@yahoo.com